Tag Archives: risk modelling

Salmonella and poultry food safety

Posted on by
Reply

Salmonella is a leading cause of foodborne illness (i.e., salmonellosis) outbreaks, which on occasion are attributed to ground turkey. The poultry industry uses Salmonella prevalence as an indicator of food safety. However, Salmonella prevalence is only one of several factors that determine risk of salmonellosis. Consequently, a model for predicting risk of salmonellosis from individual lots of ground turkey as a function of Salmonella prevalence and other risk factors was developed.

Data for Salmonella contamination (prevalence, number, and serotype) of ground turkey were collected at meal preparation. Scenario analysis was used to evaluate effects of model variables on risk of salmonellosis. Epidemiological data were used to simulate Salmonella serotype virulence in a dose‐response model that was based on human outbreak and feeding trial data. Salmonella prevalence was 26% (n = 100) per 25 g of ground turkey, whereas Salmonella number ranged from 0 to 1.603 with a median of 0.185 log per 25 g. Risk of salmonellosis (total arbitrary units (AU) per lot) was affected (p ≤ 0.05) by Salmonella prevalence, number, and virulence, by incidence and extent of undercooking, and by food consumption behavior and host resistance but was not (p > 0.05) affected by serving size, serving size distribution, or total bacterial load of ground turkey when all other risk factors were held constant. When other risk factors were not held constant, Salmonella prevalence was not correlated (r = −0.39; p = 0.21) with risk of salmonellosis. Thus, Salmonella prevalence alone was not a good indicator of poultry food safety because other factors were found to alter risk of salmonellosis. In conclusion, a more holistic approach to poultry food safety, such as the process risk model developed in the present study, is needed to better protect public health from foodborne pathogens like Salmonella .

Salmonella prevalence alone is not a good indicator of poultry food safety, 20 July 2020

Risk Analysis

Thomas Oscar

https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13563

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13563?af=R

Cilantro has a history of shits: Produce risk modelling in India

Posted on by
Reply

This study estimates illness (diarrhea) risks from fecal pathogens that can be transmitted via fecal-contaminated fresh produce. To do this, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) framework was developed in National Capital Region, India based on bacterial indicator and pathogen data from fresh produce wash samples collected at local markets.

Produce wash samples were analyzed for fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli, total Bacteroidales) and pathogens (Salmonella, Shiga-toxin producing E. coli (STEC), enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC)). Based on the E. coli data and on literature values for Cryptosporidium and norovirus, the annual mean diarrhea risk posed by ingestion of fresh produce ranged from 18% in cucumbers to 59% in cilantro for E. coli O157:H7, and was <0.0001% for Cryptosporidium; for norovirus the risk was 11% for cucumbers and up to 46% for cilantro. The risks were drastically reduced, from 59% to 4% for E. coli O157:H7, and from 46% to 2% for norovirus for cilantro in post-harvest washing and disinfection scenario.

The present QMRA study revealed the potential hazards of eating raw produce and how post-harvest practices can reduce the risk of illness. The results may lead to better food safety surveillance systems and use of hygienic practices pre- and post-harvest.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the risk of diarrheal diseases from fresh produce consumption in India

Food Microbiology, January 2018

Arti Kundu, Stefan Wuertz, Woutrina Smith

DOI: 10.1016/j.fm.2018.01.017 

http://www.x-mol.com/paper/530702