About those assumptions: The problem with models

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This is the stuff that friend-of-the-barfblog Don Schaffner gets excited about: Modelling.

Belgian researchers attempted to predict future rates of specific foodborne illnesses to guide policy efforts and came up with this:

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are foodborne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis.

The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014.

After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8–376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6–310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137–3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178–5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192–226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200–307) in 2014.

New actions are needed to reduce the risk of foodborne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.

Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and listeriosis: a time series analysis

21.sep.2017

Eurosurveillance

Maertens de Noordhout et al.

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=22877

Environmental Public Health Week

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This week is Environmental Public Health Week that celebrates the outstanding work Environmental Health Officers (EHO’s) do on a daily basis. This years theme is “Honouring Traditions, Inspiring Innovation.” In a world of constant change, EHO’s are faced with challenging circumstances and events that require innovation to safeguard public health while relying on traditional methods. This week we celebrate all of their efforts and accomplishments.

 

Why stinky hockey equipment may bother women more than men

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Watching the kids go through their paces at the end of day-1 training, I was talking with a mom who said, I’ve got to get her gear and air it out.

I shrugged.

Now that Amy is a hockey player, she also is rigorous about airing the gear and washing the undergarments.

I shrug.

Science may have an explanation.

Leonard Sax of the N.Y. Times wrote last month that the sense of smell differs between women and men. It’s entirely plausible that a woman could perceive an odor which is – for the woman – overpoweringly awful, while a man doesn’t smell anything.

In research published in 2002 in the journal Nature Neuroscience, Pamela Dalton of the Monell Chemical Senses Center and her colleagues exposed men and women to smells in the laboratory. Not just once, but over and over again. Dr. Dalton and her team found that with repeated exposure, the women’s ability to detect the odors improved 100,000-fold: the women were able to detect the odor at a concentration 1/100,000th of the concentration they needed at the beginning of the study.

But the male subjects, on average, showed no improvement at all in their ability to detect the odor.

Smell receptors in the nose send their signals via the olfactory nerve to the olfactory bulb. The olfactory bulb is the first stop in the brain for information about smell.

There are two basic kinds of brain cells: Neurons are considered the most important, because they seem to play the biggest role in sending information via electrical signals. But glial cells are essential too, because they provide structure and may also modulate information processing in the brain.

On all counts, women beat men. Women have more cells in the olfactory bulb: 16.2 million cells total in the average woman, compared with 9.2 million total cells in the average man. In 2014 research published in PLOS One, researchers at the University of São Paulo compared the noses of 18 subjects from age 55 to 94 shortly after their deaths. They found that the women had 6.9 million neurons, double the 3.5 million in the men. When they counted glial cells, women again had more: 9.3 million compared with 5.7 million in the men.

The differences in their perceptions could make each feel that the other must be crazy. Was she imagining the smell? Was he lying and pretending he didn’t smell it?

Knowing that the differences in male and female noses can be so extreme, the best approach may be for each family member to agree to respect and trust the other’s report of sensory experiences.

Raw is risky: Ceviche source of V. cholera 01 in Minn

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As we drove the five hours yesterday to Sawtell, NSW, for a week of (ice) hockey for Sorenne, and some R&R for me and Amy (mainly me), Amy was telling me about this one time, she went to Senegal (they speak French) in 2005, and the hosts offered her Tang but she didn’t want to drink it because she had been warned about the water.

Turns out there was an on-going cholera outbreak.

I was driving and thought, should I tell her that cholera is a member of the Vibrio genus?

I kept driving.

Today, while Sorenne is working it on the ice, I’m catching up and came across this report from friends at the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.

On August 20, 2016, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) was notified of a case of Vibrio cholerae infection. The isolate was identified as serogroup O1, serotype Inaba at MDH. CDC determined that the isolate was nontoxigenic. The patient was a previously healthy woman, aged 43 years, with history of gastric bypass surgery. On August 16, she experienced profuse watery diarrhea, vomiting, abdominal cramps, and headache. On August 18, she sought care and submitted the stool specimen that yielded the V. cholerae isolate. She reported no recent travel. However, she had consumed ceviche made with raw shrimp and raw oysters at restaurant A on August 14, 49 hours before illness onset. Her husband had a similar illness with a similar incubation period after eating the same foods at restaurant A.

On August 22, MDH sanitarians visited restaurant A and obtained tags and invoices for oyster and shrimp products; the oysters were a product of the United States, and the shrimp was a product of India. Sanitarians also gathered patron contact information and credit card receipts for August 12–14. Two additional patrons reported experiencing a gastrointestinal illness that met the case definition of three or more episodes of watery stool in a 24-hour period within 5 days of eating at restaurant A; one reported eating ceviche and oysters at restaurant A. Review of complaints to the MDH foodborne illness hotline revealed a previous complaint from two persons who reported experiencing watery diarrhea after eating raw shrimp ceviche (but no oysters) at restaurant A on August 2. These persons did not provide stool specimens, but their gastrointestinal illnesses met the case definition, resulting in a total of six cases, including one laboratory-confirmed case. No other V. cholerae O1 Inaba cases were reported in the United States during this outbreak.

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture facilitated sampling of shrimp at the distributor from the same lots served at restaurant A on August 14, and most likely during August 2–13, and sent them to the Food and Drug Administration for culture. Shrimp samples yielded V. cholerae non-O1, non-O139, but V. cholerae O1 was not isolated. In response to the outbreak results, restaurant A placed consumer warnings on their menus about the risks of consuming raw or undercooked food items and identified raw menu items for consumers. Restaurant A also focused on other actions that might facilitate reduction of V. cholerae, including appropriate freezing of food items, and allowing raw food items to soak in lime juice before being served, rather than serving the items immediately after adding lime juice (1,2).

V. cholera has over 150 serogroups and has been identified in a wide range of aquatic life, including seafood (3). Whereas multiple serogroups can cause vibriosis, only serogroups O1 and O139 that also contain the cholera toxin are classified as causes of cholera (4). Previous studies have documented the presence of nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 from environmental and shrimp samples in India and Southeast Asia (5–7).

This outbreak of domestically acquired, nontoxigenic V. cholerae infections, likely from shrimp consumption, included the first V. cholerae O1 case identified in a nontraveler in Minnesota since active surveillance for Vibrio began in 1996. Since 1996, MDH has detected 26 V. cholerae infections, 21 (81%) of which were non-O1, non- O139, and five of which were O1. Among the four O1 type cases identified before the current outbreak, all patients had a recent travel history to Micronesia or India. This outbreak demonstrates the importance of investigating all seafood eaten by patients with vibriosis. In addition, investigators should include nontoxigenic V. cholerae as a possible etiology of domestic foodborne outbreaks, particularly when foods eaten include those from V. cholerae O1–endemic areas.

Notes from the field: Vibrio cholerae Serogroup O1, Serotype Inaba — Minnesota, August 2016

CDC MMWR

Victoria Hall, Carlota Medus, George Wahl, Alida Sorenson, Melanie Orth, Monica Santovenia, Erin Burdette, Kirk Smith

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/wr/mm6636a6.htm?s_cid=mm6636a6_e

 

Barf scam: UK cracks down

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Food is, and remains, 21st century snake oil.

For every fatal, life-threatening or barf-inducing foodborne illness, there’s a grifter, huckster or con around the corner.

According to Joe Hinton of the Daily Star, hoteliers in popular resorts say holidaymakers have been suffering “harassment” from conmen.

The fraudsters convince tourists to make false claims and then take a cut of any payout. A source told the Daily Star Sunday: “This is almost as big a business as drugs in some places.

“Yes, the authorities are trying to crack down, but there are still hundreds going through every week.

“Hotels don’t want the hassle of legal fees so they pay out more often than not.

 “All you need is a picture of a receipt for anti-sickness medication.

“Most people get £2,000 a claim. The tout skims off the top and so does the law firm.”

Now police are going undercover to catch the fraudsters, who are costing the hotel industry £60million a year.

The investigation has been backed by UK tour operators.

Freedom of Information documents seen by the Daily Star Sunday show that Jet2, Thomas Cook, Monarch and TUI are looking into hundreds of bogus claims in Mallorca and other islands.

The documents said: “The rise in the number of fraudulent claims is having a serious impact on contracts for next season as hoteliers turn to other markets such as Germany.

“And Spanish police are eager to make some arrests to start setting a clear example.”

UK tour operators and Spanish hotels have been hit with scores of compensation claims in the last few months.

Swindlers are making official complaints about food poisoning.

Then, on arrival in the UK they are getting anti-sickness drugs. Under our laws they don’t even need a doctor’s note – a pharmacy receipt is enough to make a claim.

Millions have already been paid out to holidaymakers – leading to chefs in the resorts being unjustly sacked.

Last week Brit mum Laura Joyce, 37, was arrested in Mallorca on suspicion of running a £9million holiday sickness scam.

She is accused of using middlemen to encourage holidaymakers to fake illnessness to claim compensation.

Jet2 has now hired private detectives to nail the cowboy companies touting for business.

It has already caught one couple touting for business in Benidorm.

£60,000 fine: Halal or not, food safety basics are the same

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Adam Halal Foods Ltd of Nechelles, Birmingham has been ordered to pay more than £68,000 after being convicted of five charges relating to failures of hygiene controls at their premises.

Following inspections of the company’s cutting plant and cold store in Birmingham by the Food Standards Agency (FSA) on 31 May and 8 September 2016, Adam Halal Foods Ltd were summoned to appear before Birmingham Magistrates Court on 2 August 2017 on five charges. These charges related to their failure to ensure that meat was kept at the correct temperature on their premises.

The Court fined the company £60,000, ordered it to pay the FSA’s costs of £8,043.74 plus an additional £120 victim surcharge making a total of £68,163.74.

FSA Chairman, Heather Hancock, said: ‘The FSA takes these breaches of food safety regulations very seriously. We welcome this substantial fine for these totally unacceptable hygiene breaches. This sends a clear message to other plants that fail to uphold the required standards of food safety: we will investigate and we will look to prosecute.’

Fancy food ain’t safe food, crab edition

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The Crab in the Park Central Hotel restaurant, Exeter Road, Bournemouth, UK, which boasts two AA Rosettes and its chefs are ‘Michelin-star trained’ has been given a zero food hygiene rating after food inspectors launched an investigation.

‘Urgent improvement is necessary’ at after an impromptu inspection earlier this year.

Alex Winter of the Daily Echo writes inspectors raised concerns under the category ‘management of food safety’, which includes assessment of the system or checks in place to ensure that food sold or served is safe to eat and evidence that staff know about food safety.

However, the inspectors also found improvements are also needed in categories ‘hygienic food handling’, which includes preparation, cooking, re-heating, cooling and storage, as well as ‘cleanliness and condition of facilities and building to enable good food hygiene’.

Seafood mains on the à la carte menu begin at £18.95 for ‘The Crab’s posh fish and chips’, while lobster linguine is £26.95.

The restaurant also offers delicacies including sashimi tuna tartar, scallops and octopus.

The manager of the Park Central Hotel had not returned calls from the Daily Echo at the time of going to press.

Fancy food ain’t safe food, Mark Sergeant’s Rocksalt edition

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An award-winning Folkestone, UK, restaurant run by celebrity chef Mark Sergeant has been given a low food hygiene rating.

Inspectors discovered ‘unsafe’ cooking procedures at Rocksalt, in Folkestone Harbour and the top eatery was told ‘improvement is necessary’.

Callum Wilson of Kent Live reports the damning Environmental Health report, inspectors said diners were at risk of food poisoning.

The restaurant, which has previously received rave reviews, has now had its five star rating taken away and replaced with the much lower rating ‘requires improvement’.

A Shepway District Council environmental health officer took the perfect score away after finding a ‘high risk’ chicken liver was undercooked.

The officer said: “I noted some cooking procedures that could lead to an unsafe product. For example: chicken livers maybe cooked “medium”.

“Chicken liver pate is cooked in the combi-oven. Core temperature is monitored using a probe and the product is considered cooked when it reaches 70 C.

“The time temperature combination for thorough cooking is 70C held for 2 minutes.”

In a warning to the restaurant, the officer said: “Please ensure chicken products are thoroughly cooked (as per your HACCP procedure for high risk products)”.

Rocksalt is co-owned by celebrity chef Mark Sargeant and Josh DeHaan and opened in 2011.

No one at the restaurant was available for comment.

However, a post appeared on the Rocksalt website saying: “We have requested a revisit and have addressed the single cooking technique deemed incorrect.

“We have urgently retrained all staff to our correct procedure.”

Heston or Hugh? Sous-vide risk

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Scientists from Public Health England analysed 34 meals from restaurants, hotels and pubs which were mostly made up of chicken or duck breast cooked in a water bath.

They found the ‘sous-vide’ method of simmering vacuum-packed foods in a water bath could increase the risk of food poisoning.

The technique, pioneered by celebrity chefs like Heston Blumenthal, is lauded for its ability to preserve flavour and texture, but it braises food well below the 100C boiling point of water

Sales of sous-vide machines, which can cost up to £400, are reported to have increased by around 300 per cent in recent years in the UK 

The results, in the journal Epidemiology and Infection, showed ten had ‘unsatisfactory’ levels of bacterial contamination and another eight were borderline.

Microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington, who investigated the deaths of 21 people in Scotland in 1996 from an outbreak of E.coli, said: ‘I would not want to eat anything that had not been heated through properly.’

I’ll go with Hugh.

Washing raw poultry increases cross-contamination

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Campylobacter jejuni is an important human pathogen commonly associated with raw poultry. The risk of cross-contamination in the kitchen is escalated with washing raw poultry in the sink- an unnecessary measure for food safety. Cook the bird to an internal temperature of 74°C (165°F), no need for washing.

Holly Van Hare of The Daily Meal reports:

You’re spraying your sink with salmonella
Washing your fruit? Absolutely. Washing your lettuce? Necessity. But running warm water over a slimy slab of raw chicken is just about the worst thing you can do with your kitchen sink.
In fact, it’s such a bad idea that the National Health Service (NHS) in Britain issued a public warning against the “sanitary” practice — claiming that “it can increase your risk of food poisoning from campylobacter bacteria.”
Chicken is one of the most commonly infected raw foods when it comes to foodborne bacteria such as salmonella. These bacteria lurk both on the surface and insides of the raw meat, growing indefinitely until you cook them dead. “Only a few campylobacter cells are needed to cause food poisoning,” the NHS says.
Washing the chicken involves running tap water over that infested piece of meat. The water becomes contaminated as soon as it hits the surface of your poultry, and proceeds to splash in every direction both inside and around your kitchen sink. “Water droplets can travel more than 50 centimeters in every direction,” the NHS warns, a distance that equates to over one and a half feet.
After that bacteria spreads, it’s hard to get rid of. The only real way to effectively kill the bacteria you’ve now sprinkled around your home is to disinfect everything — an onerous task you’re likely saving until after you’re done cooking. That means your risk of exposure is prolonged and the bacteria could even come into contact with your other food.
If you’re preparing chicken, skip the washing step. The oven kills everything, anyway — and once a chicken is properly cooked, it’s 100 percent free of disease-causing bacteria. If you’re bored with bland old chicken and looking to spice things up, here are 101 of our best recipes.